Historical Social Area Analysis for the District of Vienna

Social area studies based on the methods of factor analysis have a long tradition in Geography and Regional Science. However cross-sectional studies are prevailing, caused by lacking statistical information for longer periods of urban development as well as by some methodological problems. A new method of "historical factor analysis" has been applied to a time series of data (1971 to 1991) relating to about 1300 small scaled census districts of the Austrian capital Vienna. Thus the changes of the three dimensions of Factorial Ecology (socioeconomic, demographic and ethnic status) can be noticed for a period of 20 years. Main outlines of urban structure as well as fundamental tendencies of change have been worked out by the use of so called "trend-surface-models", the results of which are represented by maps as well as in the form of three-dimensional imaginary surfaces, like "social", "demographic" or "ethnic" "mountains". Computer simulations show their emergence in the course of time. Main problems of urban development disclosed by historical factor analysis refer to ongoing "twofold segregation" (of ethnic minorities as well as of the lowest domestic social strata) as well as to advanced aging-cycles of some inner and peripheral districts.

Figure 2 shows the results of a "trend-surface-model" relating to the dimension of the "socioeconomic status" as of 1991. They are presented as a perspective picture of an imaginary "mountain range", whereby the upper strata's residential locations are forming the "peaks" while the lower class-districts can be identified as "valleys" (figure 1 offers some topographical information to the interpretation of the "social landscape"). One can recognize the social peaks of the city and the platform of it's surrounding middle-class districts as well as the steep slope to the ring of workers homes built in the period of industrialization. The western outskirts are again characterized by a large "social mountain range", representing the holiday houses of the rich extending along the edge of the Vienna Woods. In contrast the outer "shells" of urban development in the south and east of the river Danube appear as hilly countries representing the newer urban satellites of social housing inhabited by families of the upper working class as well as of the lower middle classes.

The comparison of figure 2 and figure 3 (which gives the structure of 1971) shows a general upgrading of social structure whereby the western suburbs social rise exceeds the average trend. According to the ring of small appartements of the blue-collar workers two tendencies can be recognized: 1) gentrification and significant social upgrading in the areas neighbouring to the more attractive residential locations as well as to places offering a certain environmental qualitiy, like parks and green spaces; 2) ongoing urban decay and social degradation in the central areas of the ring of workers homes, where desinvestment strategies of the house-owners (profiting from rising demand for cheap housing) play an essential role.

A computer simulation (AVI-video or animated GIF, designed by Klaus NEUDECKER) shows the development of this "social landscape" during the twenty years from 1971 to 1991 allowing a detailed study of change. Map 1 contains some of these informations in traditional two-dimensional form: coloured area symbols characterize the socioeconomic structure of 1991 while line symbols are representing recent changes.

Figure 4 and figure 5 refer to the dimension of the "demographic status". Within this "demographic landscape" "mountains" are representing the predominance of younger groups of the urban population (as well as of larger families and a comparatively low number of women employed in industry or services). "Valleys" or "lowlands" stand for aged residential districts (as well as for single households very often formed by women). Figure 5 gives the structure of 1971 and shows an impressive "crater of overaging" formed by the city with it's adjacent middle class quarters, the small-appartment ring of the blue-collar workers, but by the western upperclass suburbs, too. "Mountains of youth" are surrounding the southern and eastern rim of this "crater", representing the satellite-towns of social housing programs, (built since the mid-60s) as well as suburban single-family-housing. During the 70s a peak in the aging process of Vienna's population has been reached and map 2 (situation of 1991) delineates the consequences of rejuvenation. They can be recognized for example by the "hilly structures" rising from the bottom of "crater of overaging" where older demographic strata have been replaced successively by younger population, either members of the domestic middle classes in the gentrified areas (see above) or foreign and ethnic groups of "foreign workers" in the zones of urban decay (see below). However rejuvenation is still not the case in the western suburbs, as it's "topographic structures" show. The young periphery has undergone an aging process of twenty years since 1971, which caused the "erosion" of some of the "mountain ranges of youth", but new edge cities and suburban family housing have led to the ongoing concentration of younger people in many districts.

Figure 7 contains the "ethnic landscape" of 1971. It corresponds to the results of many studies of Social Area Analysis, where "point-patterns" of the distribution of ethnic groups within the residential areas of the cities have been stated. "Hills" and small, isolated "mountains" are marking such "ethnic spots" in Vienna, mostly situated within the ring of the blue-collar workers, but also bound to other separated blocks and small districts with unfavourable housing conditions.

Figure 6 (topography of 1991) and map 3 show an essential change: A voluminous "ethnic mountain ridge" rose from the Northwest to the South, supplemented by some more isolated but also relatively high "mountains" stretching the North to the Southeast of the core area. This essential change of ethnic structure is caused 1) by the growth of Vienna's foreign population (many immigrants come from Turkey and former Yugoslavia) from about 60.000 in 1971 to nearly 200.000 in 1991 (and about 280.000 in 1996) and 2) by the low rent-paying ability of most of the ethnic groups as well as their exclusion from public housing. Thus they become concentrated in the problem areas of the ring of workers home close to the lowest domestic social classes. A number of social and political conflicts is resulting from this situation.

A couple of very serious problems can be attributed to the structural changes shown by the graphs and maps:

• the "twofold" segregation of ethnic groups and of the members of the Viennerse lower classes while social disparities are decreasing in general;
• the reintensification of the aging process after a short period of rejuvenation, whereby the western suburbs will be affected in particular as well as the satellite towns mentioned above, where the absence of infrastructure will cause serious problems.

 
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